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China-Iran Relations: Prospects and Complexities
Abstract
China-Iran relations have steadily evolved and expanded in the domains of geopolitics, economics and diplomacy since the Iranian revolution. Presently, being increasingly isolated from the world under Donald Trump's maximum pressure campaign, Iran has been further drawn towards China, which, in the long term, can significantly alter the existing regional security architecture of the Persian Gulf. The recent agreements and partnership between the two countries, which is reflected in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as well as the draft 25-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) will pave the way for a long term strategic cooperation between the two countries. In this context, the paper analyzes various factors that have systemically fostered friendly ties between the two countries. The paper also explores historical and contemporary trends that can impact the future of bilateral relations. Further, it evaluates the economic relations between the two countries outlining the trade in the oil sector as well as other sectors. Lastly, the paper examines the plausible challenges to the future of bilateral relations. For this, the paper relies on three variables: the internal dynamics and perception in Iran about its relations with China; the major power-middle power dynamics that can prove to be a barrier in the relations; and the outlook and responses of the regional countries that may scuttle the process of strategizing bilateral relationship.
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Ibid.
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Ibid.
Winberg Chai and May-lee Chai, “The Meaning of Xi Jinping's Chinese Dream,” American Journal of Chinese Studies 20, no. 2 (2013): 95-97, https://www.jstor.org/stable/44289022?seq=1. In 2012, Xi Jinping assumed the leadership of the CCP and coined the term, ‘Chinese Dream’ that not only encapsulated his vision for China in the twenty-first century based on nationalism and Chinese revival but it is also built on the historical collective memory that forms a narrative that China was subjugated by the Western powers, not given its rightful place in the world and was stripped of its territories. Hence the Chinese Dream resolved to restore the past glory.
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Ibid.; Brian Scheid and Eklavya Gupte, “As US Sanctions Increase, China Remains Iran's Top Crude, Condensate Importer,” S&P Global Platts, January 10, 2020, https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/011020-as-us-sanctions-increase-china-remains-irans-top-crude-condensate-importer.
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Liu and Lei Wu, “Key Issues in China-Iran Relations,” 40-57; Zahid Khan and Changgang Guo, “China's Energy Driven Initiatives with Iran: Implications for the United States,” Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies 11, no. 4 (2017): 15-31, https://doi.org/10.1080/25765949.2017.12023315.
Refers to the crude oil exploration and production.
Khan and Guo, “China's Energy Driven Initiatives with Iran: Implications for the United States.” The China National Petroleum Corporations (CNPC), Sinopec, and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation.
Refers to the refining and distribution of crude oil products.
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Ibid.
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Shariatinia and Hamidreza Azizi, “Iran and the Belt and Road Initiative: Amid Hope and Fear.”
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Erika Holmquist and Johan Englund, “China and Iran: An Unequal Partnership” (paper, Swedish Defense Research Agency-FOI, Stockholm, 2020); Conduit and Akbarzadeh, “Great Power-Middle Power Dynamics: The Case of China and Iran.”
Conduit and Akbarzadeh, “Great Power-Middle Power Dynamics: The Case of China and Iran.”
For instance, Shannon Tiezzi, “China's Two-Pronged Response to the Quad,” Diplomat, October 7, 2020, https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/chinas-two-pronged-response-to-the-quad/.
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Shariatinia and Hamidreza Azizi, “Iran and the Belt and Road Initiative: Amid Hope and Fear.”
From this point of view, the lightning-speed expansion of relations with China has led to the closure of a considerable number of key Iranian factories and the unemployment of their workforce. For example, Iranian First Vice President Eshagh Jahangiri has criticized the former administration led by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, accusing it of the uncontrolled import of USD 700 billion of goods from various countries, especially China, and claimed that these imports led to the unemployment of Iranian youth and instead, created employment opportunities for Chinese youth.
Belal, “Elections and Political System in Iran.”
Shariatinia and Hamidreza Azizi, “Iran and the Belt and Road Initiative: Amid Hope and Fear.”
Jeremy Garlick and Radka Havlová, “China's ‘Belt and Road’ Economic Diplomacy in the Persian Gulf: Strategic Hedging Amidst Saudi-Iranian Regional Rivalry,” Journal of Current Chinese Affairs 49, no. 1 (2020): 82-105, https://doi.org/10.1177/1868102619898706.
For instance, “India Plans $20B Investment in Iranian Port,” Maritime Executive, November 4, 2016, https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/india-plans-20b-investment-in-iranian-port.
Indermit Gill, Somik V. Lall, and Mathilde Lebrand, “Winners and Losers along China's Belt and Road,” Future Development Blog, June 21, 2019, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2019/06/21/winners-and-losers-along-chinas-belt-and-road/.
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